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Audible Audiobook
Listening Length: 13 hours and 25 minutes
Program Type: Audiobook
Version: Unabridged
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education
Audible.com Release Date: September 15, 2017
Whispersync for Voice: Ready
Language: English, English
ASIN: B075M1Y16N
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
The basic theme throughout is simply that stock returns (in all developed nations, though at differing slopes, pp. 88-90) regress to a mean, as bonds, and all other investment alternatives, do not. That’s one point. By taking the long historical view (from the dawn of the American republic), Siegel also demonstrates (Chapter 6, pp. 93-103) that in this country over periods of five years and longer, real stock returns (after inflation) stray from our mean return (6.5%) less and less, until at thirty years the observed deviations are half what standard statistics expect. So stocks are both much more volatile short-term—cf. Mandelbrot and Hudson, The (mis)Behavior of Markets—and much less volatile long-term, than Modern Portfolio Theory says they should be. That’s point #2. And, his third crucial point, value strategies (Chapter 12, pp. 173-193, on low-P/E, high-dividend stocks) consistently surpass the market indices by 2% or more in annual compounded returns. I know of no other book which has made any one of these three points so clearly and demonstrated them so forcefully with historical data and mathematical analysis. Ben Graham, to be sure, made the case for value investing decades ago, and does a better job of understanding and presenting the process than anyone else before or since, but of course he couldn’t come close to the range and depth of modern databases and computing power to undergird his argument. Siegel has written the one book since Graham’s Intelligent Investor that everyone should read and re-read before presuming to buy any security other than an index fund.So, for instance, I needed to know that stocks have never failed to offer a positive real return over any period of seventeen years or more. Long-term bonds, in contrast, since the Civil War have outperformed stocks in just one 30-year period (by a minuscule .05% per year!), as interest rates fell from 16% in late 1981 to 2% in 2011—but the real return on these “safe†investments was negative for the entire post-war period before that, and likely will be for years to come. And Siegel repeatedly makes the point that especially when we think about retirement the only safety that matters is the assurance of rising purchasing-power over spans of decades.The book is not without its limitations. I don’t think Siegel understands options or other derivatives; his faulty discussion of stock index options in the 4th edition has been abbreviated, but his remaining remarks are misleading at best. Consequently the major new sections in this edition, which deal with the recent financial crisis, while fairly sound (e.g. showing how slight a role Fannie and Freddy played), understate the impact of synthetic credit default swaps, which by the time the fever broke had made the subprime mortgage market five times larger than the mess the bankers and mortgage brokers had created in the first place. Hence next to no one had any idea how immense the problem really was, though a few (see M. Lewis, The Big Short) saw enough to profit hugely.Other material in Siegel’s 378 pages adequately and sensibly covers major areas of historical interest (the primary stock indices, money, monetary policy and the gold standard), analyzes other financial and economic crises, surveys current issues (the business cycle, market responses to current events) and concerns (the developed world’s retirement “crisisâ€, on which he is quite optimistic), and I could cavil here and there or suggest other specialized treatments. But what he has to say on these topics is sufficient (and his history of the S&P 500 is excellent) for firmly embedding the three points with which I began, which are points every investor should ponder long and hard.But how many of us will profit from them? On p. 97 he mentions the allure of “safer†alternatives which do after all outperform stocks, over periods of one or two years, nearly 40% of the time. I don’t know that he sees how deep the pain goes for individuals watching dollars vaporize by the thousands, dollars which a bank account would at least have preserved and guaranteed. Nor, I think, does he see how hard it would be for asset managers to follow his principles when markets soar and “irrational exuberance" reigns triumphant; sticking to a long-term strategy is impossible when benchmark risk means your assets are marching out the door. Siegel’s work will most benefit those who know not just the concepts but themselves. It hurts to play from behind, alone, trusting the odds, trying to trust yourself. Long-term investment is a discipline less of intellect than of temperament and character. But the discipline of study and thought is still part of it, and Siegel’s history and mathematics keep me mindful of what the true odds are. In this and earlier editions, Stocks for the Long Run is one of just six books (cf. my review of M. Mauboussin More Than You Know) which have decisively shaped how I think about what I do.
As an experienced investor who has read over a hundred investment books, Stocks for the Long run has always been in my top 5. Eager for updated data and analysis, I read the new 5th edition, but sadly, it added some uninsightful reviews of the credit crisis and took out some really good stuff, including data on returns following high sentiment, fed cuts, and economic cycles. One of my favorite items omitted was about the justified PE on the nifty fifty and what growth rates justify stock stock prices. Still a great book, but I think the 3rd edition is much better.
I have two hobbies that I enjoy that are thought provoking. Playing chess and investing in stocks. Sometimes preachers are judged for investing for retirement or seeking to use the stock market to provide for themselves in retirement, but at the end of the day, these judgers are not going to pay your bills. This book was a great overview of the stock market, and even the great recession. It provided a lot of helpful advice, and helped create a long term perspective on investing in a stock. It highlights the value appraoch to stocks, but this pond has been fished a lot over the years. The book gave a lot of good principles to follow. Typically, there are highs and lows, and typically it is from people beginning to be too pessimistic or optimistic. Controlling your emotions is huge. It talks about passive investing, which I recommend for people, and active investing, which is much more enjoyable. Some people enjoy riding on a boat with a captain while others enjoy navigating the winds themselves. The author is a permenant bull on the market, which causes you to wonder about his advice. But at the end of the day, being safe, and investing over time seems to always win the day. So young ministers, start young, and be consistent. So here is some advice young preachers, if you are in your 20's, start a Roth IRA, invest in the S&P 500 fund or ETF.
Well researched and supported by 200+ years of data, Professor Siegel's book makes a compelling case that stocks historically have provided far higher returns with (this is surprising) less risk that other asset classes for the patient investor with the right time horizon. I, for one, have never understood the conventional wisdom that someone like me, 10+ years from retirement should have 45% of my nest egg in bonds, which have their own risks as rates rise. I've read pretty much every investing book there is, and this is in the top 6 along with A Random Walk Down Wall Street (start with this gem), Unconventional Success (Yale Endowment superstar David Swenson's primer for the rest of us), Robert Shiller's Irrational Exuberance, The Intelligent Investor (still interesting after all these decades but not as readable as the others), and Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway Letters to Shareholders 1965-present. Now, if you have found yourself up at night, or worse yet, selling, during the latest big market sell off that is currently going on, then yes, the stock market may not be for you. If however, you look at the historical data Jeremy Siegle provides, you may see it as an opportunity. No matter what you decide to do based on your own temperament and time horizon, the information provided in the classic should prove educational.
An outstanding examination of the stock market for the past century. It does not examine the financial vehicles that no one understands; but to paraphrase Warren Buffet, one should not invest in vehicles that one does not understand. Findings are very highly data dependent-- just the way I like them. I rate the investment advice in this book to be of equal or better quality than those by Daniel Solin, Ken Fisher, and Jane Bryant Quinn. This is the book I was looking for,
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